Introduction: Treatments for the human immunodeficiency virus and antiretroviral drugs in Colombia, consume a large part of the health budget, because the cost is directly proportional to the survival time of the patient, so the most effective treatments are within reach of a small part of the population. A possible virological failure implies a detriment in the health of the patient and also, loss of resources associated to the treatment costs. Objective: Using a through a prognostic model, to show the cost overruns caused by lack of adherence and mutations of the HIV virus, which may confer resistance to antiviral treatments to patients with HIV infection.Methods: An observational, descriptive and retrospective study was accomplished with a sample of 64 results of genotyping of the virus carried out on patients at an IPS specialized in comprehensive care for people infected with the immunodeficient virus. It were selected the cases which fulfilled the criteria of the study, according to the results of the instrument applied. Subsequently, the information was analyzed crossing the variables, to describe the behavior. Results: It was determined that the time of treatment and the time of attention in the IPS, do not help to predict mutations that generate resistance to antiretroviral drugs. In addition, it was demonstrated that exposure to ART in any case, will generate some type of mutations that can generate resistance to ART. This indicates that if you want to predict the cost of treatment for this EPS, the predictor variables would be X1= the type of treatment received, X2= Sexual preference and X3= Age.Conclusions: Cost is essential in Health Administration, for which it was one of the most important variables in the study, therefore within the descriptive study it was found that the adherence factor is inverse to the cost of treatment, thereupon, the more adherent be the patient, the lower the cost.
