The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC Thesis

short description

  • Master's thesis

Thesis author

  • Guerra-Cujar, Maria Elvira

abstract

  • Research has indicated that armed conflict influences fertility during and after a conflict. It remains unclear, however, whether there is an effect of the end of long-lasting conflicts in women's fertility. The present study estimates a /textit{difference-in-differences} model to close that knowledge gap with the identification of the effect of Colombia's end of conflict with the FARC insurgency on the total fertility rate. Results indicate that there was a differential increase in total fertility rate in the areas exposed to FARC attacks prior to the declaration of the permanent ceasefire. We show that these results are not driven by the post-ceasefire baby boom of former FARC's rebels. Instead, our evidence shows that municipalities with mines victims and expelled population by forced displacement before the ceasefire have differentially higher total fertility rate in the four years following the ceasefire, and the newborns have more survival chances. We argue that the mechanism behind this result is the optimism to raise the children in a better environment due to the reduction in victimization in areas that experience FARC violence.

publication date

  • August 26, 2020 2:32 PM

keywords

  • Armed conflict
  • Fertility
  • Mortality
  • Pregnancy
  • Violence

Document Id

  • 9cfae1cb-6d8c-41ed-8d4d-7db53febae65