Abstract The objective of this study is to present an analytical framework monitoring the development of the Swedish biofuels system, to evaluate its impacts on the achievement of 10% of renewable fuels by 2020, and to identify development patterns in order to establish a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels by 2030. The methodological approach relies on systems thinking approach and uses causal loops diagram as a guide to our analysis. The results show that policymakers have to decide among different pathways of growth based on internal- and external-resources of the Swedish biofuel system as well as to apply either supply or demand pressures onto the system in order to accomplish a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels by 2030.