Resumen
- OBJECTIVES: To identify the prognostic factors that are associated with the time of improvement of the patients, as well as to develop a predictive model that allows to estimate the time of relief of the reaction. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A retrospective cohort study. Information was obtained from the medical records of patients who had presented episodes of type 1 lepra reaction during the years 2003 to 2009. The incidence density rate for the time of improvement of the reactionary episode was estimated. Cox regression analysis was used to develop a predictive model on reaction improvement time. RESULTS: Data from 35 patients with type 1 lepra reaction events were included. The overall incidence rate of reaction improvement time was 7.3 per 100 people/month of follow-up (95% CI: 5.2-10.1). With the predictive model, patients were classified into two groups: those with the worst prognosis (35 months for improvement) were patients with lepromatous leprosy, requiring two medications to achieve control of the reaction; and those with better prognosis had dimorphic leprosy and cutaneous manifestations that improved in the first months of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Using the given model, the improvement time of patients with type 1 lepra reaction can be predicted. © 2021 Comunicaciones Cientificas Mexicanas S.A. de C.V.. All rights reserved.