Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8percent-flag-change (95percent-flag-change confidence interval (CI) [13.1-18.7]) for 2003-2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22percent-flag-change (95percent-flag-change CI [18-26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1percent-flag-change (95percent-flag-change CI [21.9-15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22percent-flag-change (95percent-flag-change CI [0.22-0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.
