The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil Artículo académico

Autor

Cristian Felipe Zuluaga
Fernando Ramos Martins
Flavio B. Justino
Wilmar L. Cerón

Resumen

Photovoltaic power potential (P PV ) is part of the strategies in Brazil to satisfy the population's energy demand and contribute to reduction of global warming in the climate change context. This study assesses climate change's impact on P PV using a set of 47 state of the art Earth System Models from CMIP6 under two climate change (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Changes in solar radiation, temperature and P PV are calculated for the near-term (2021–2050) and end-century (2071–2100) future, concerning the historical period (1981–2010). For the future, the sign of climate change is consistent in both scenarios, but with more intense magnitudes in the SSP5-8.5 for the end-century, and indicate a brightening in North region and warming in the whole country. For the near-term future, P PV projects the maximum increases (≈3%) in the North under both scenarios. The most notable decreases in P PV are noticed by the end-century (−5%) over the country, except for the extreme north. The sensitivity to the increase in temperature of current P PV systems' technology would not allow increases in the yield of P PV , canceling the positive effect of the brightening.

autores

http://vivoweb.org/ontology/core#FacultyMember
Ávila Díaz, Álvaro Javier

fecha de publicación

2022-6-1

Área temática

Edición

193

Número Internacional Normalizado de Publicaciones Seriadas (ISSN)

0960-1481

Identificador de objeto digital (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.029

Número de páginas

13

Página inicial

1019

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1031