The effect of conflict on electoral competition: evidence from a decrease in the colombian conflict Thesis

short description

  • Master's thesis

Thesis author

  • Coy Combita, Nelson Felipe

abstract

  • The electoral competition is fragile in politically driven conflicts. Scholars have pointed out that armed groups use their de facto power to influence elections. Consequently, would a reduction in conflict intensity foster competition? Using a difference-in-differences design, I study this question in the context of a significant decrease in conflict after 2003 in Colombia. I find that municipalities more affected by the previous conflict experienced a 6% increase in electoral competition after the conflict decreased. I suggest this effect is mainly driven by an investment of local elites in de jure power as a trade-off for the demobilization of allied armed groups.

publication date

  • October 25, 2022 4:08 PM

keywords

  • Conflict
  • Electoral competition
  • Elites
  • Voting

Document Id

  • e9e01690-92c5-4c37-a1b0-e82272498b25