Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)

Autor

Alexander Koch
Ana Isabel Ayala
Angela Gallego-Sala
Anne Gädeke
Camilla Novaglio
Chantelle Burton
Cheryl S. Harrison
Chia Ying Lee
Christian Otto
Christopher P.O. Reyer
Colin Jones
Colleen M. Petrik
Daniel Mercado-Bettín
Derek Tittensor
Don Pierson
Dánnell Quesada-Chacón
Eleanor Burke
Fang Li
Fred Hattermann
Gitta Lasslop
Hannes Müller Schmied
Iliusi D. Vega Del Valle
Inga J. Sauer
Inge De Graaf
Jacob Schewe
Jan Volkholz
Jed O. Kaplan
Jinfeng Chang
Jochen Klar
Jonas Jägermeyr
Julia L. Blanchard
Katja Frieler
Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
Kerry Emanuel
Linn Hamester
Lisa Novak
Maryna Strokal
Matthew Forrest
Matthias Büchner
Matthias Mengel
Matthieu Lengaigne
Michel Bechtold
Noah Smith
Olivier Maury
Rafael Marcé
Robert Ladwig
Robert Reinecke
Rohini Kumar
Ryan Heneghan
Sam S. Rabin
Sarah Chadburn
Simon N. Gosling
Simon Treu
Stefan Lange
Stefanie Heinicke
Suzana J. Camargo
Thomas Hickler
Thomas Vogt
Tyler D. Eddy
Wim Thiery

Resumen

This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs), i.e. change in climate comprising the atmosphere and the ocean, coastal water levels, and atmospheric composition (CO2 and methane concentrations), provided as input data within the 'b'part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models simulations forced by observational Direct Human Forcings (DHF), such as changes in population and asset distributions, land use, fishing efforts, agricultural and water management driven by socio-economic development or climate protection strategies, and observational CRF, the ISIMIP3b CRFs are based on climate model simulations generated within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In a first set of experiments covering the pre-industrial (1601-1849) and historical period (1850-2014) (ISIMIP3b, group I) the CMIP6-based CRFs for the historical period are combined with historical observation-based DHF also considered in ISIMIP3a. These group I simulations allow for the quantification of impacts of historical climate change by comparison to simulations where the observational DHF are combined with simulated pre-industrial CRFs. In addition, the impacts of observed changes in CRFs can be compared to the impacts of simulated changes in CRFs by comparing the ISIMIP3a simulations to the ISIMIP3b, group I simulations. The second group of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group II) comprises future projections assuming constant observational direct human forcings at 2015 levels to estimate the impact of climate change given today's DHF for the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the high and the very high emission scenarios SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, and reference simulations based on pre-industrial CRF, respectively. The very high emissions scenarios and the assumption of fixed present day DHF particularly allow for testing the scalability of impacts in terms of global temperature change. The provided CRFs comprise atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, atmospheric and oceanic climate data, coastal water levels, tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and their associated wind speed and precipitation fields. In addition to the CRFs data, this paper describes the experiments belonging to group I and II and the rationale behind them. Another set of future projections accounting for changing DHFs (ISIMIP3b, group III) is in preparation and will be described in another paper.

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Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II) Artículo académico

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