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  2. Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)

Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II) Artículos académico

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Autor

  • Alexander Koch
  • Ana Isabel Ayala
  • Angela Gallego-Sala
  • Anne Gädeke
  • Camilla Novaglio
  • Chantelle Burton
  • Cheryl S. Harrison
  • Chia Ying Lee
  • Christian Otto
  • Christopher P.O. Reyer
  • Colin Jones
  • Colleen M. Petrik
  • Daniel Mercado-Bettín
  • Derek Tittensor
  • Don Pierson
  • Dánnell Quesada-Chacón
  • Eleanor Burke
  • Fang Li
  • Fred Hattermann
  • Gitta Lasslop
  • Hannes Müller Schmied
  • Iliusi D. Vega Del Valle
  • Inga J. Sauer
  • Inge De Graaf
  • Jacob Schewe
  • Jan Volkholz
  • Jed O. Kaplan
  • Jinfeng Chang
  • Jochen Klar
  • Jonas Jägermeyr
  • Julia L. Blanchard
  • Katja Frieler
  • Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
  • Kerry Emanuel
  • Linn Hamester
  • Lisa Novak
  • Maryna Strokal
  • Matthew Forrest
  • Matthias Büchner
  • Matthias Mengel
  • Matthieu Lengaigne
  • Michel Bechtold
  • Noah Smith
  • Olivier Maury
  • Rafael Marcé
  • Robert Ladwig
  • Robert Reinecke
  • Rohini Kumar
  • Ryan Heneghan
  • Sam S. Rabin
  • Sarah Chadburn
  • Simon N. Gosling
  • Simon Treu
  • Stefan Lange
  • Stefanie Heinicke
  • Suzana J. Camargo
  • Thomas Hickler
  • Thomas Vogt
  • Tyler D. Eddy
  • Wim Thiery

Resumen

  • This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs), i.e. change in climate comprising the atmosphere and the ocean, coastal water levels, and atmospheric composition (CO2 and methane concentrations), provided as input data within the 'b'part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models simulations forced by observational Direct Human Forcings (DHF), such as changes in population and asset distributions, land use, fishing efforts, agricultural and water management driven by socio-economic development or climate protection strategies, and observational CRF, the ISIMIP3b CRFs are based on climate model simulations generated within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In a first set of experiments covering the pre-industrial (1601-1849) and historical period (1850-2014) (ISIMIP3b, group I) the CMIP6-based CRFs for the historical period are combined with historical observation-based DHF also considered in ISIMIP3a. These group I simulations allow for the quantification of impacts of historical climate change by comparison to simulations where the observational DHF are combined with simulated pre-industrial CRFs. In addition, the impacts of observed changes in CRFs can be compared to the impacts of simulated changes in CRFs by comparing the ISIMIP3a simulations to the ISIMIP3b, group I simulations. The second group of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group II) comprises future projections assuming constant observational direct human forcings at 2015 levels to estimate the impact of climate change given today's DHF for the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the high and the very high emission scenarios SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, and reference simulations based on pre-industrial CRF, respectively. The very high emissions scenarios and the assumption of fixed present day DHF particularly allow for testing the scalability of impacts in terms of global temperature change. The provided CRFs comprise atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, atmospheric and oceanic climate data, coastal water levels, tropical cyclone (TC) tracks and their associated wind speed and precipitation fields. In addition to the CRFs data, this paper describes the experiments belonging to group I and II and the rationale behind them. Another set of future projections accounting for changing DHFs (ISIMIP3b, group III) is in preparation and will be described in another paper.

Área temática

  • Acción por el clima
  • Trabajo decente y crecimiento económico
  • Vida de ecosistemas terrestres

autores

  • http://vivoweb.org/ontology/core#FacultyMember
    Stijn Erik R Hantson

Edición

  • 19

fecha de publicación

  • 2026-5-19

Identidad

Número Internacional Normalizado de Publicaciones Seriadas (ISSN)

  • 1991-959X

Identificador de objeto digital (DOI)

  • https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026

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