Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming Artículos académico

Perfil
Identidad

Autor

Akihiko Ito
Atul K. Jain
Christian Folberth
Christoph Müller
Christopher P.O. Reyer
Clemens Scheer
Fang Li
Florian Zabel
Jacob Schewe
Jonas Jägermeyr
Julia M. Schneider
Juraj Balkovic
Karim Zantout
Katja Frieler
Kedar Otta
Maik Billing
Masashi Okada
Mengxue Li
Nikolay Khabarov
Sam S. Rabin
Sebastian Ostberg
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Simon N. Gosling
Tobias Hank
Toshichika Iizumi
Tzu Shun Lin
Wenfeng Liu

Resumen

Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme climate events have been extensively studied, yet two questions remain underexplored: Do such events occur regularly, and how do regularity patterns change under global warming? We address these questions by investigating dominant periods in crop failure, heatwave, and wildfire data. Here, we show that under pre-industrial conditions dominant periods emerge in 28% of cropland exposed to crop failure and 10% of wildfire-affected areas, likely related to climatic oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, while heatwaves occur irregularly. The number of dominant periods increases by 2–13% during the transition from the pre-industrial era to the anthropocene. In the anthropocene, the occurrence of extreme events shifts towards monotonic growth, replacing previous natural regularity patterns. Linearly de-trended projections reveal an additional shift towards smaller dominant periods due to climate change. These shifts in regularity are crucial for adaptation planning, and our method offers an additional approach for studying extreme events.

Área temática

Acción por el clima

autores

http://vivoweb.org/ontology/core#FacultyMember
Stijn Erik R Hantson

Edición

16

fecha de publicación

2025-12-1

Número Internacional Normalizado de Publicaciones Seriadas (ISSN)

2041-1723

Identificador de objeto digital (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65600-7