Ajuste en el cálculo de la prevalencia de consumo de cigarrillos convencionales y electrónicos y su impacto en la salud pública en Colombia 2018-2021
Thesis
Colombia has not yet complied with international tobacco control standards. Despite having implemented certain measures to comply with the obligations outlined in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, these have not been sufficient. For example, the National System of Population Studies and Surveys for Health has been hampered by problems such as a shortage of financial and technical resources. In the case of the Quality of Life Survey (QLS) (Encuesta de Calidad de Vida - ECV in Spanish), a social desirability bias was identified, which affects the accuracy of the estimation of the prevalence of smokers. Therefore, this research addresses the problem of QLS through two methods, the first one that accounts for a construction of correction factors, and the second one, a logistic model to determine by means of probabilities the number of smokers closest to the current situation in Colombia. Both methods take as a reference the National Survey on Psychoactive Substance Consumption (Encuesta Nacional de Consumo de Sustancias Psicoactivas - ENCSPA, in Spanish) which, thanks to its methodological construction, could more accurately capture this type of psychoactive substance consumption. The results showed that a greater number of smokers could be observed in comparison with the original figures. These showed that for the year 2021, method 1 estimated an overall smoking prevalence of 7.3%, and for method 2, 6.9%, both higher than the original prevalence of 6.0%, suggesting the existence of more than 400,000 new smokers. The underreporting adjustment was higher in method 1, indicating a better approximation of unreported smokers; however, results may vary when considering other probability exercises in method 2.
