Análisis de eventos climáticos extremos y su relación con los servicios ecosistémicos de regulación y mantenimiento del bosque de manglar en el archipiélago de San Andrés, Providencia y Santa Catalina
Thesis
In recent decades, the impacts associated with climate change have become the central axis ofworld conversations, directly influencing sustainable development and territorial planning, withthe aim of minimizing the causes of this and adapting to the effects it causes. Part of this planninginvolves nature-based solutions where, in addition to conserving the ecosystems of each area, theirecosystem services are exploited.This study analyzes extreme climatic events, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, and discusstheir relationship with the regulation and maintenance ecosystem services in terms of erosion ratecontrol, regulation of the hydrological cycle and water flow (including flood control) and protectionagainst storms, provided by the mangrove forest ecosystems in the archipelago of San Andrés,Providencia and Santa Catalina, Colombia.Initially, the climatology and extreme climatic events of the Archipelago were analyzed mainlyrelated to precipitation and the wind regime, in order to determine their trend in terms of frequency,duration and intensity, then these results were contrasted with the occurrence of hurricanes andtropical storms, to determine their relationship and trend in terms of their temporality and intensity.Finally, in order to identify the importance of the conservation and protection of mangrove forestecosystems, a bibliographic analysis was carried out that allowed us to identify what are thecontributions that these ecosystems provide in the case of extreme climatic events and it was proposed how they could be identified through the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model, which produces a semi-quantitative estimate of the risk to these exposures through an index of vulnerability. Among the most important results, it was found that i) the Archipelago's climatology is of a quasibimodal cycle, with changing dynamics in the last two decades and with great spatial disparity, ii) in comparison with the two analysis periods (the last two decades vs the previous two decades) there is a significant increase in the extremes of precipitation, iii) hurricanes and tropical storms near the Archipelago recently doubled and the maximum associated wind speed increased by 10% and iv) the occurrence of hurricanes and tropical storms is not necessarily associated with significant extreme rainfall. Regarding the relationship between extreme climatic events and the ecosystem services of the mangrove forest, according to the literature review carried out (n= 30 articles), there is a large agreement about the important protection that these ecosystems provide to coastal and island populations. In addition, the methodologies to quantify ecosystem services include hydrological, morphological and ecological analyzes that are then limited in economic results for decision makers, showing real views of how much mitigation is provided by mangroves, in monetary terms, in the event of the occurrence of an extreme climatic event with its multiple repercussions. Thus, the present work highlights the urgent need to restore and expand the mangrove forest areas in the Archipelago as a measure of mitigation and adaptation to extreme climatic events. Investments in reducing the vulnerability of the island's inhabitants to the harmful effects of climate change must combine several strategies (climate mitigation, nature-based solutions, waste management, territorial planning, etc.) to reduce environmental damage, economic and social aspects of one of the largest marine protected areas on Earth.
